Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 113.725778 130.128288 148.583160 170.985162 197.575743 228.292912 266.698010
2026-01-18 92.550165 113.503882 139.158296 173.240665 217.876638 275.112057 355.313751
2026-01-25 78.702541 101.465487 131.108008 173.245054 232.775903 315.708445 443.343286
2026-02-01 67.850749 90.890217 122.360685 169.553404 240.436916 346.196122 522.494657
2026-02-08 59.593820 82.374654 114.744467 165.515764 245.873519 373.164448 601.074877
2026-02-15 53.189771 75.520103 108.345477 161.888635 250.657293 399.072344 682.915410
2026-02-22 51.047118 74.561329 110.398958 171.379736 277.749413 466.629937 856.093532
2026-03-01 47.561811 71.098168 108.051779 173.185528 291.786463 513.583616 1002.243064
2026-03-08 44.661914 68.205957 106.206028 175.436309 306.755244 564.946483 1172.243436
2026-03-15 41.686161 64.868158 103.206773 175.145032 316.729810 608.177273 1336.954199
2026-03-22 40.657976 64.629003 105.388568 184.511700 347.081773 700.411367 1651.829156
2026-03-29 39.458474 63.959521 106.701642 192.344515 375.611211 795.268594 2010.678851
2026-04-05 37.940319 62.668178 106.891034 198.294047 401.934243 893.440283 2428.107736
2026-04-12 36.088600 60.614680 105.459483 200.775292 421.081917 979.361071 2851.286527
2026-04-19 34.113610 58.156276 102.996468 200.734473 434.333167 1053.571153 3274.597051
2026-04-26 31.842054 54.954863 98.774459 196.319591 436.135668 1096.795518 3609.703054
2026-05-03 29.748172 51.924206 94.609250 191.503718 436.102783 1134.949969 3948.021726
2026-05-10 27.902653 49.227460 90.869780 187.182523 436.598027 1175.010167 4319.436912
2026-05-17 27.706635 49.717002 93.693055 198.495766 481.334525 1369.028045 5524.170080
2026-05-24 26.674370 48.465001 92.744324 200.650849 501.064211 1486.992195 6458.204534
2026-05-31 25.760427 47.379936 92.048562 203.338159 522.963649 1620.589547 7599.657491
2026-06-07 24.667610 45.848495 90.242629 202.990316 535.742828 1725.312235 8675.957054
2026-06-14 24.515286 46.252811 92.758890 214.186349 587.076080 2001.895488 11200.268419